Reassessing the Link between Voter Heterogeneity and Political Accountability: A Latent Class Regression Model of Economic Voting

While recent research has underscored the conditioning effect of individual characteristics on economic voting behavior, most empirical studies have failed to explicitly incorporate observed heterogeneity into statistical analyses linking citizens' economic evaluations to electoral choices. In order to overcome these drawbacks, we propose a latent class regression model to jointly analyze the determinants and influence of economic voting in Presidential and Congressional elections. Our modeling approach allows us to better describe the effects of individual covariates on economic voting and to test hypotheses on the existence of heterogeneous types of voters, providing an empirical basis for assessing the relative validity of alternative explanations proposed in the literature. Using survey data from the 2004 U.S. Presidential, Senate and House elections, we and that voters with college education and those more interested in political campaigns based their vote on factors other than their economic perceptions. In contrast, less educated and interested respondents assigned considerable weight to economic assessments, with sociotropic jugdgments strongly in uencing their vote in the Presidential election and personal financial considerations affecting their vote in House elections. We conclude that the main distinction in the 2004 election was not between `sociotropic' and `pocketbook' voters, but rather between `economic' and `non-economic' voters

Israel in Adult Education

The relationship between American Jews and Israel has been impacted by the growing differences between the two communities. This research outlines the challenges of adult Jewish education today and provides recommendations on how to enhance the quality and frequency of Israel education in adult learning experiences

An Exceptional Sector for F-theory GUTs

D3-branes are often a necessary ingredient in global compactifications of F-theory. In minimal realizations of flavor hierarchies in F-theory GUT models, suitable fluxes are turned on, which in turn attract D3-branes to the Yukawa points. Of particular importance are ``E-type'' Yukawa points, as they are required to realize a large top quark mass. In this paper we study the worldvolume theory of a D3-brane probing such an E-point. D3-brane probes of isolated exceptional singularities lead to strongly coupled N = 2 CFTs of the type found by Minahan and Nemeschansky. We show that the local data of an E-point probe theory determines an N = 1 deformation of the original N = 2 theory which couples this strongly interacting CFT to a free hypermultiplet. Monodromy in the seven-brane configuration translates to a novel class of deformations of the CFT. We study how the probe theory couples to the Standard Model, determining the most relevant F-term couplings, the effect of the probe on the running of the Standard Model gauge couplings, as well as possible sources of kinetic mixing with the Standard Model.Comment: v2: 32 pages, 1 figure, references added, appendix remove

Variations in mid-ocean ridge CO2 emissions driven by glacial cycles

The geological record shows links between glacial cycles and volcanic productivity, both subaerially and at mid-ocean ridges. Sea-level-driven pressure changes could also affect chemical properties of mid-ocean ridge volcanism. We consider how changing sea-level could alter the CO2 emissions rate from mid-ocean ridges, on both the segment and global scale. We develop a simplified transport model for a highly incompatible element through a homogenous mantle; variations in the melt concentration the emission rate of the element are created by changes in the depth of first silicate melting. The model predicts an average global mid-ocean ridge CO2 emissions-rate of 53 Mt/yr, in line with other estimates. We show that falling sea level would cause an increase in ridge CO2 emissions with a lag of about 100 kyrs after the causative sea level change. The lag and amplitude of the response are sensitive to mantle permeability and plate spreading rate. For a reconstructed sea-level time series of the past million years, we predict variations of up to 12% (7 Mt/yr) in global mid-ocean ridge CO2 emissions. The magnitude and timing of the predicted variations in CO2 emissions suggests a potential role for ridge carbon emissions in glacial cycles

Theoretical Foundations and Empirical Evaluations of Partisan Fairness in District-Based Democracies

We clarify the theoretical foundations of partisan fairness standards for district-based democratic electoral systems, including essential assumptions and definitions not previously recognized, formalized, or in some cases even discussed. We also offer extensive empirical evidence for assumptions with observable implications. We cover partisan symmetry, the most commonly accepted fairness standard, and other perspectives. Throughout, we follow a fundamental principle of statistical inference too often ignored in this literature—defining the quantity of interest separately so its measures can be proven wrong, evaluated, and improved. This enables us to prove which of the many newly proposed fairness measures are statistically appropriate and which are biased, limited, or not measures of the theoretical quantity they seek to estimate at all. Because real-world redistricting and gerrymandering involve complicated politics with numerous participants and conflicting goals, measures biased for partisan fairness sometimes still provide useful descriptions of other aspects of electoral systems